**Persistent marine layer influence and stable high-pressure patterns are keeping San Francisco's overnight lows centered in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market's leading 58-59°F outcome (48% implied probability).** National Weather Service forecasts for the August 24 low sit at 58°F, consistent with August climatology (average low 57°F) and recent model runs showing minimal deviation. Cool Pacific waters sustain a marine layer that limits radiative cooling, while a stalled low-pressure system offshore and high pressure over the interior maintain typical summer onshore flow and cloud cover. This setup caps downside risk, explaining the lower but notable 20.5% on 49°F or below as a low-probability tail. Upper bins (60-61°F at 26%) reflect minor upside from temporary clearing. With resolution imminent and no major model shifts expected before the overnight period, trader sentiment clusters tightly around the forecast consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
58-59°F 48%
49°F or below 41%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
41%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
8%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
48%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
1%
58-59°F 48%
49°F or below 41%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 17%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$55 Обс.
41%
50-51°F
$55 Обс.
7%
52-53°F
$6 Обс.
8%
54-55°F
$6 Обс.
12%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
17%
58-59°F
$5 Обс.
48%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
22%
62-63°F
$65 Обс.
9%
64-65°F
$70 Обс.
1%
66-67°F
$5 Обс.
1%
68°F or higher
$185 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent marine layer influence and stable high-pressure patterns are keeping San Francisco's overnight lows centered in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market's leading 58-59°F outcome (48% implied probability).**
National Weather Service forecasts for the August 24 low sit at 58°F, consistent with August climatology (average low 57°F) and recent model runs showing minimal deviation. Cool Pacific waters sustain a marine layer that limits radiative cooling, while a stalled low-pressure system offshore and high pressure over the interior maintain typical summer onshore flow and cloud cover. This setup caps downside risk, explaining the lower but notable 20.5% on 49°F or below as a low-probability tail. Upper bins (60-61°F at 26%) reflect minor upside from temporary clearing. With resolution imminent and no major model shifts expected before the overnight period, trader sentiment clusters tightly around the forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$452Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent marine layer influence and stable high-pressure patterns are keeping San Francisco's overnight lows centered in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market's leading 58-59°F outcome (48% implied probability).**
National Weather Service forecasts for the August 24 low sit at 58°F, consistent with August climatology (average low 57°F) and recent model runs showing minimal deviation. Cool Pacific waters sustain a marine layer that limits radiative cooling, while a stalled low-pressure system offshore and high pressure over the interior maintain typical summer onshore flow and cloud cover. This setup caps downside risk, explaining the lower but notable 20.5% on 49°F or below as a low-probability tail. Upper bins (60-61°F at 26%) reflect minor upside from temporary clearing. With resolution imminent and no major model shifts expected before the overnight period, trader sentiment clusters tightly around the forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$452Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent marine layer influence and stable high-pressure patterns are keeping San Francisco's overnight lows centered in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market's leading 58-59°F outcome (48% implied probability).** National Weather Service forecasts for the August 24 low sit at 58°F, consistent with August climatology (average low 57°F) and recent model runs showing minimal deviation. Cool Pacific waters sustain a marine layer that limits radiative cooling, while a stalled low-pressure system offshore and high pressure over the interior maintain typical summer onshore flow and cloud cover. This setup caps downside risk, explaining the lower but notable 20.5% on 49°F or below as a low-probability tail. Upper bins (60-61°F at 26%) reflect minor upside from temporary clearing. With resolution imminent and no major model shifts expected before the overnight period, trader sentiment clusters tightly around the forecast consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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