Recent JMA and multi-model ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a Friday overnight minimum near 20–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain that limit radiative cooling while drawing in milder maritime air from the east. High pressure to the north and a weak frontal boundary maintain humid, stable conditions without a significant cool-air advection event. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but current steering patterns and model consensus favor slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting tight agreement across runs with limited downside risk from further cooling. Updated model guidance and any overnight observational shifts from the Japan Meteorological Agency will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 25?
22°C 38%
21°C 35%
17°C or below 28%
19°C 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
28%
18°C
19%
19°C
23%
20°C
15%
21°C
35%
22°C
44%
23°C
16%
24°C
19%
25°C
19%
26°C
19%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 38%
21°C 35%
17°C or below 28%
19°C 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Обс.
28%
18°C
$0 Обс.
19%
19°C
$0 Обс.
23%
20°C
$0 Обс.
15%
21°C
$46 Обс.
35%
22°C
$376 Обс.
44%
23°C
$0 Обс.
16%
24°C
$0 Обс.
19%
25°C
$0 Обс.
19%
26°C
$0 Обс.
19%
27°C or higher
$0 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and multi-model ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a Friday overnight minimum near 20–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain that limit radiative cooling while drawing in milder maritime air from the east. High pressure to the north and a weak frontal boundary maintain humid, stable conditions without a significant cool-air advection event. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but current steering patterns and model consensus favor slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting tight agreement across runs with limited downside risk from further cooling. Updated model guidance and any overnight observational shifts from the Japan Meteorological Agency will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$422Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and multi-model ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a Friday overnight minimum near 20–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain that limit radiative cooling while drawing in milder maritime air from the east. High pressure to the north and a weak frontal boundary maintain humid, stable conditions without a significant cool-air advection event. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but current steering patterns and model consensus favor slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting tight agreement across runs with limited downside risk from further cooling. Updated model guidance and any overnight observational shifts from the Japan Meteorological Agency will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$422Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and multi-model ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a Friday overnight minimum near 20–22°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain that limit radiative cooling while drawing in milder maritime air from the east. High pressure to the north and a weak frontal boundary maintain humid, stable conditions without a significant cool-air advection event. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but current steering patterns and model consensus favor slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting tight agreement across runs with limited downside risk from further cooling. Updated model guidance and any overnight observational shifts from the Japan Meteorological Agency will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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