Updated numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's September 4 minimum clustered around 14–16°C, driving tight market-implied odds near those thresholds. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system is increasing cloud cover and humidity, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and keeps boundary-layer temperatures elevated. Light winds and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range by enhancing mixing. Clearer breaks could allow stronger longwave heat loss and push readings toward 14°C or below, while thicker stratus or sustained precipitation would favor the higher end near 16–17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus against climatological September minima near 10°C, with resolution hinging on the next 48-hour forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
13°C 84%
18°C 77%
17°C 76%
19°C 76%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
49%
13°C
84%
14°C
74%
15°C
53%
16°C
48%
17°C
76%
18°C
77%
19°C
76%
20°C
8%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
49%
13°C 84%
18°C 77%
17°C 76%
19°C 76%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Обс.
49%
13°C
$0 Обс.
84%
14°C
$0 Обс.
74%
15°C
$0 Обс.
53%
16°C
$0 Обс.
48%
17°C
$0 Обс.
76%
18°C
$0 Обс.
77%
19°C
$0 Обс.
76%
20°C
$0 Обс.
8%
21°C
$0 Обс.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Обс.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Updated numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's September 4 minimum clustered around 14–16°C, driving tight market-implied odds near those thresholds. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system is increasing cloud cover and humidity, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and keeps boundary-layer temperatures elevated. Light winds and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range by enhancing mixing. Clearer breaks could allow stronger longwave heat loss and push readings toward 14°C or below, while thicker stratus or sustained precipitation would favor the higher end near 16–17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus against climatological September minima near 10°C, with resolution hinging on the next 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Updated numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's September 4 minimum clustered around 14–16°C, driving tight market-implied odds near those thresholds. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system is increasing cloud cover and humidity, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and keeps boundary-layer temperatures elevated. Light winds and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range by enhancing mixing. Clearer breaks could allow stronger longwave heat loss and push readings toward 14°C or below, while thicker stratus or sustained precipitation would favor the higher end near 16–17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus against climatological September minima near 10°C, with resolution hinging on the next 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Updated numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw's September 4 minimum clustered around 14–16°C, driving tight market-implied odds near those thresholds. A southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system is increasing cloud cover and humidity, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and keeps boundary-layer temperatures elevated. Light winds and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range by enhancing mixing. Clearer breaks could allow stronger longwave heat loss and push readings toward 14°C or below, while thicker stratus or sustained precipitation would favor the higher end near 16–17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus against climatological September minima near 10°C, with resolution hinging on the next 48-hour forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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