Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 3 will likely fall in the 14–16°C range, with radiative cooling under variable high cloud cover and light westerly flow preventing deeper drops. This consensus—supported by hourly guidance showing early-morning readings near 14°C before daytime warming to 21–24°C—explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–15°C. Mild late-summer air mass temperatures, typical early-September climatology (historical minima near 10°C), and minimal model spread on precipitation timing sustain uncertainty between adjacent outcomes while capping odds for extremes below 12°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and IMGW briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 3?
19°C or higher 44%
13°C 31%
14°C 26%
15°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
21%
10°C
4%
11°C
15%
12°C
23%
13°C
31%
14°C
26%
15°C
25%
16°C
17%
17°C
15%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
44%
19°C or higher 44%
13°C 31%
14°C 26%
15°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Обс.
21%
10°C
$5 Обс.
4%
11°C
$0 Обс.
15%
12°C
$0 Обс.
23%
13°C
$0 Обс.
31%
14°C
$0 Обс.
26%
15°C
$0 Обс.
25%
16°C
$5 Обс.
17%
17°C
$5 Обс.
15%
18°C
$5 Обс.
2%
19°C or higher
$5 Обс.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 3 will likely fall in the 14–16°C range, with radiative cooling under variable high cloud cover and light westerly flow preventing deeper drops. This consensus—supported by hourly guidance showing early-morning readings near 14°C before daytime warming to 21–24°C—explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–15°C. Mild late-summer air mass temperatures, typical early-September climatology (historical minima near 10°C), and minimal model spread on precipitation timing sustain uncertainty between adjacent outcomes while capping odds for extremes below 12°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and IMGW briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$25Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 3 will likely fall in the 14–16°C range, with radiative cooling under variable high cloud cover and light westerly flow preventing deeper drops. This consensus—supported by hourly guidance showing early-morning readings near 14°C before daytime warming to 21–24°C—explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–15°C. Mild late-summer air mass temperatures, typical early-September climatology (historical minima near 10°C), and minimal model spread on precipitation timing sustain uncertainty between adjacent outcomes while capping odds for extremes below 12°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and IMGW briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$25Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 3 will likely fall in the 14–16°C range, with radiative cooling under variable high cloud cover and light westerly flow preventing deeper drops. This consensus—supported by hourly guidance showing early-morning readings near 14°C before daytime warming to 21–24°C—explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–15°C. Mild late-summer air mass temperatures, typical early-September climatology (historical minima near 10°C), and minimal model spread on precipitation timing sustain uncertainty between adjacent outcomes while capping odds for extremes below 12°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and IMGW briefings remain key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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