**Recent official forecasts position 10–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s overnight low on August 22.** MetService and Met Office guidance issued in the past 48 hours call for a daytime high near 14°C and an overnight minimum of 12°C under a strengthening northwesterly flow, while earlier NIWA seasonal outlooks noted near- or slightly below-average temperatures for the central North Island region. These model runs align with the market’s heaviest trading on 11°C (41.5 %), 10°C (30.0 %), and 12°C (29.0 %). **Key meteorological drivers include the current synoptic pattern and local effects.** A moist northwesterly airstream is expected to moderate radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above the long-term August average low of ~9°C. Cloud cover and wind gusts to 45–75 km/h further limit overnight temperature drops. Recent polar-air outbreaks earlier in August lowered some South Island readings but have been replaced by milder conditions that models project will persist through the 22nd. **Traders are weighting these consensus forecasts against resolution criteria—the official lowest temperature recorded at Wellington’s primary observing site.** With the event only hours away, any late-model shift in the overnight minimum (e.g., clearer skies allowing greater cooling toward 8–9°C) could quickly move the 7–9°C or 13°C+ options, but current guidance keeps the bulk of implied probability tightly clustered around 10–12°C.