Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the Met Office and local ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 9–12 °C, driven by northwest winds of 20–30 mph, variable cloud cover, and a passing frontal system that limits radiational cooling. Historical September climatology places the typical daily minimum near 9–10 °C, yet current guidance shows slightly milder conditions from stronger advection, producing the market's heaviest weighting on 12 °C (57 % implied probability) followed closely by 11–13 °C outcomes. Model spread and timing of any clearing explain why probabilities remain distributed across 9–14 °C rather than converging on a single value, with traders incorporating the latest 48-hour forecast updates that continue to favor this central range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
9°C 78%
10°C 78%
14°C 78%
11°C 77%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
69%
8°C
16%
9°C
78%
10°C
78%
11°C
77%
12°C
59%
13°C
42%
14°C
78%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
19%
9°C 78%
10°C 78%
14°C 78%
11°C 77%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Обс.
69%
8°C
$0 Обс.
16%
9°C
$0 Обс.
78%
10°C
$0 Обс.
78%
11°C
$0 Обс.
77%
12°C
$0 Обс.
59%
13°C
$0 Обс.
42%
14°C
$0 Обс.
78%
15°C
$0 Обс.
3%
16°C
$0 Обс.
1%
17°C or higher
$221 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the Met Office and local ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 9–12 °C, driven by northwest winds of 20–30 mph, variable cloud cover, and a passing frontal system that limits radiational cooling. Historical September climatology places the typical daily minimum near 9–10 °C, yet current guidance shows slightly milder conditions from stronger advection, producing the market's heaviest weighting on 12 °C (57 % implied probability) followed closely by 11–13 °C outcomes. Model spread and timing of any clearing explain why probabilities remain distributed across 9–14 °C rather than converging on a single value, with traders incorporating the latest 48-hour forecast updates that continue to favor this central range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$221Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the Met Office and local ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 9–12 °C, driven by northwest winds of 20–30 mph, variable cloud cover, and a passing frontal system that limits radiational cooling. Historical September climatology places the typical daily minimum near 9–10 °C, yet current guidance shows slightly milder conditions from stronger advection, producing the market's heaviest weighting on 12 °C (57 % implied probability) followed closely by 11–13 °C outcomes. Model spread and timing of any clearing explain why probabilities remain distributed across 9–14 °C rather than converging on a single value, with traders incorporating the latest 48-hour forecast updates that continue to favor this central range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$221Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the Met Office and local ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 9–12 °C, driven by northwest winds of 20–30 mph, variable cloud cover, and a passing frontal system that limits radiational cooling. Historical September climatology places the typical daily minimum near 9–10 °C, yet current guidance shows slightly milder conditions from stronger advection, producing the market's heaviest weighting on 12 °C (57 % implied probability) followed closely by 11–13 °C outcomes. Model spread and timing of any clearing explain why probabilities remain distributed across 9–14 °C rather than converging on a single value, with traders incorporating the latest 48-hour forecast updates that continue to favor this central range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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