Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mild northwesterly advection over Wellington, with overnight lows on September 3 likely near 12–13°C amid cloudy skies and sustained winds of 20–30 km/h that limit radiative cooling. This supports the balanced market-implied odds between the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in whether a transient southerly shift or clearer conditions could allow greater overnight heat loss. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 9–10°C, but the current El Niño-enhanced westerly regime and short-range model agreement on above-average temperatures keep the distribution centered on moderate values while leaving room for volatility in final minimum readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
8°C or below 93%
18°C or higher 92%
10°C 48%
12°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
93%
9°C
3%
10°C
48%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
8%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
92%
8°C or below 93%
18°C or higher 92%
10°C 48%
12°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Обс.
93%
9°C
$5 Обс.
3%
10°C
$5 Обс.
48%
11°C
$0 Обс.
26%
12°C
$0 Обс.
27%
13°C
$0 Обс.
27%
14°C
$0 Обс.
26%
15°C
$5 Обс.
8%
16°C
$5 Обс.
3%
17°C
$5 Обс.
2%
18°C or higher
$5 Обс.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mild northwesterly advection over Wellington, with overnight lows on September 3 likely near 12–13°C amid cloudy skies and sustained winds of 20–30 km/h that limit radiative cooling. This supports the balanced market-implied odds between the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in whether a transient southerly shift or clearer conditions could allow greater overnight heat loss. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 9–10°C, but the current El Niño-enhanced westerly regime and short-range model agreement on above-average temperatures keep the distribution centered on moderate values while leaving room for volatility in final minimum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mild northwesterly advection over Wellington, with overnight lows on September 3 likely near 12–13°C amid cloudy skies and sustained winds of 20–30 km/h that limit radiative cooling. This supports the balanced market-implied odds between the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in whether a transient southerly shift or clearer conditions could allow greater overnight heat loss. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 9–10°C, but the current El Niño-enhanced westerly regime and short-range model agreement on above-average temperatures keep the distribution centered on moderate values while leaving room for volatility in final minimum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mild northwesterly advection over Wellington, with overnight lows on September 3 likely near 12–13°C amid cloudy skies and sustained winds of 20–30 km/h that limit radiative cooling. This supports the balanced market-implied odds between the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in whether a transient southerly shift or clearer conditions could allow greater overnight heat loss. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 9–10°C, but the current El Niño-enhanced westerly regime and short-range model agreement on above-average temperatures keep the distribution centered on moderate values while leaving room for volatility in final minimum readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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