Oklahoma’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Longtime incumbent Tom Cole, first elected in 2003, faces only token primary opposition on June 16 from Marcie Everhart while Democrats field a low-profile contest between Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley ahead of the November general election. The district’s R+17 partisan voting index, Cole’s consistent double-digit margins including 65% in 2024, and substantial fundraising lead create structural barriers for any Democratic challenger. An independent candidate has also filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected Republican primary upset or a major national political realignment, though both remain low-probability events given the seat’s consistent voting patterns and institutional advantages for the incumbent party.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$22,501 Обс.
$22,501 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$22,501 Обс.
$22,501 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$14,337 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$8,164 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Longtime incumbent Tom Cole, first elected in 2003, faces only token primary opposition on June 16 from Marcie Everhart while Democrats field a low-profile contest between Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley ahead of the November general election. The district’s R+17 partisan voting index, Cole’s consistent double-digit margins including 65% in 2024, and substantial fundraising lead create structural barriers for any Democratic challenger. An independent candidate has also filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected Republican primary upset or a major national political realignment, though both remain low-probability events given the seat’s consistent voting patterns and institutional advantages for the incumbent party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$22,501Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Longtime incumbent Tom Cole, first elected in 2003, faces only token primary opposition on June 16 from Marcie Everhart while Democrats field a low-profile contest between Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley ahead of the November general election. The district’s R+17 partisan voting index, Cole’s consistent double-digit margins including 65% in 2024, and substantial fundraising lead create structural barriers for any Democratic challenger. An independent candidate has also filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected Republican primary upset or a major national political realignment, though both remain low-probability events given the seat’s consistent voting patterns and institutional advantages for the incumbent party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$22,501Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Longtime incumbent Tom Cole, first elected in 2003, faces only token primary opposition on June 16 from Marcie Everhart while Democrats field a low-profile contest between Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley ahead of the November general election. The district’s R+17 partisan voting index, Cole’s consistent double-digit margins including 65% in 2024, and substantial fundraising lead create structural barriers for any Democratic challenger. An independent candidate has also filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected Republican primary upset or a major national political realignment, though both remain low-probability events given the seat’s consistent voting patterns and institutional advantages for the incumbent party.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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