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Canada's population Up or Down this year?

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Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

43% khả năng
Polymarket
MỚI

Up

43% khả năng
Polymarket
MỚI
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 quarterly estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record, dropping 0.2% to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 19.6% plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration Levels Plan cuts for 2026-2028, limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000—a 43% reduction from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February report projects flat overall growth this year as NPR numbers continue falling from 7.6% to 6.4% of the total population. Consecutive quarterly drops have solidified trader consensus at 57.5% for a net decline by year-end, though permanent resident targets near 380,000 and modest natural increase leave room for reversal ahead of June estimates.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$1,413
Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2027
Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 quarterly estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record, dropping 0.2% to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 19.6% plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration Levels Plan cuts for 2026-2028, limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000—a 43% reduction from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February report projects flat overall growth this year as NPR numbers continue falling from 7.6% to 6.4% of the total population. Consecutive quarterly drops have solidified trader consensus at 57.5% for a net decline by year-end, though permanent resident targets near 380,000 and modest natural increase leave room for reversal ahead of June estimates.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$1,413
Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2027
Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Câu hỏi thường gặp

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 57% for "Down." A price of 57% means the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," decide whether you believe Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on January 27. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is 57% for "Down," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 57% chance that Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish down over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market resolves based on a comparison of Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 versus noon ET on January 27, using Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the April 29 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.