Statistics Canada's March 18 quarterly estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record, dropping 0.2% to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 19.6% plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration Levels Plan cuts for 2026-2028, limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000—a 43% reduction from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February report projects flat overall growth this year as NPR numbers continue falling from 7.6% to 6.4% of the total population. Consecutive quarterly drops have solidified trader consensus at 57.5% for a net decline by year-end, though permanent resident targets near 380,000 and modest natural increase leave room for reversal ahead of June estimates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Statistics Canada's March 18 quarterly estimates confirmed Canada's first annual population decline on record, dropping 0.2% to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026, primarily due to a 19.6% plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration Levels Plan cuts for 2026-2028, limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000—a 43% reduction from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February report projects flat overall growth this year as NPR numbers continue falling from 7.6% to 6.4% of the total population. Consecutive quarterly drops have solidified trader consensus at 57.5% for a net decline by year-end, though permanent resident targets near 380,000 and modest natural increase leave room for reversal ahead of June estimates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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