Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 KL.
$394,575 KL.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 KL.
$394,575 KL.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
$5,363 KL.
No
20°C
$3,304 KL.
No
21°C
$5,056 KL.
No
22°C
$6,052 KL.
No
23°C
$15,635 KL.
No
24°C
$24,465 KL.
No
25°C
$33,167 KL.
No
26°C
$92,132 KL.
Yes
27°C
$107,145 KL.
No
28°C
$51,272 KL.
No
29°C or higher
$50,983 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Khối lượng
$394,575Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$394,575Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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