Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
26°C 48%
27°C 41%
25°C 6%
28°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
48%
27°C
41%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 48%
27°C 41%
25°C 6%
28°C 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
$191 KL.
1%
23°C
$192 KL.
2%
24°C
$145 KL.
2%
25°C
$217 KL.
6%
26°C
$219 KL.
48%
27°C
$556 KL.
41%
28°C
$182 KL.
6%
29°C
$78 KL.
3%
30°C
$479 KL.
1%
31°C
$97 KL.
<1%
32°C or higher
$102 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,457Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,457Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a daily maximum near 28–29 °C for Istanbul on 2 September under persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor modest daytime warming. Market-implied probabilities favor 26–27 °C because traders weigh ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the precise timing of peak insolation, all of which can shave 1–2 °C from model point forecasts. Historical early-September climatology (mean daily maximum ~28 °C) provides context, yet short-term steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects introduce the narrow uncertainty separating the leading outcomes ahead of the next model cycles and official Turkish Meteorological Service updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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