Latest numerical weather prediction models, including those from AEMET and international ensembles, indicate a maximum temperature near 38°C for Madrid on August 8 under stable high-pressure conditions and predominantly clear skies that promote strong solar insolation. This aligns with the market-implied probability of 57.5% for 38°C, followed by 25.5% for 37°C, as recent model runs show limited spread and no signals for extreme heat advection or cloud cover that would alter outcomes. Above-normal temperatures persist from early August patterns, exceeding the long-term August average high of around 32–34°C, though probabilities remain low for 40°C or higher due to the absence of amplified heatwave dynamics in current guidance. Updated forecasts from official agencies over the next 24 hours will be key for any shifts in trader consensus.