Recent PAGASA and regional model guidance for Manila points to persistent southwest monsoon flow and scattered afternoon showers through August 18, keeping daytime heating limited and positioning 28 °C as the market favorite. These conditions favor cloud cover and evaporative cooling that cap maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only modest upside risk from brief clearing that could allow 29–30 °C readings. Traders are weighting the high probability of continued moisture advection and limited insolation over the next 48 hours, while noting that any unexpected break in the monsoon or delayed convection could shift the distribution upward. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next model cycles will provide the next resolution-relevant data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Manila on August 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 18?
28°C 40%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
9%
27°C
19%
28°C
40%
29°C
28%
30°C
10%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
5%
28°C 40%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
$30 KL.
<1%
23°C
$28 KL.
<1%
24°C
$13 KL.
1%
25°C
$32 KL.
5%
26°C
$3 KL.
9%
27°C
$0 KL.
19%
28°C
$8 KL.
40%
29°C
$21 KL.
28%
30°C
$1 KL.
10%
31°C
$5 KL.
5%
32°C or higher
$17 KL.
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA and regional model guidance for Manila points to persistent southwest monsoon flow and scattered afternoon showers through August 18, keeping daytime heating limited and positioning 28 °C as the market favorite. These conditions favor cloud cover and evaporative cooling that cap maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only modest upside risk from brief clearing that could allow 29–30 °C readings. Traders are weighting the high probability of continued moisture advection and limited insolation over the next 48 hours, while noting that any unexpected break in the monsoon or delayed convection could shift the distribution upward. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next model cycles will provide the next resolution-relevant data points.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Khối lượng
$158Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA and regional model guidance for Manila points to persistent southwest monsoon flow and scattered afternoon showers through August 18, keeping daytime heating limited and positioning 28 °C as the market favorite. These conditions favor cloud cover and evaporative cooling that cap maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only modest upside risk from brief clearing that could allow 29–30 °C readings. Traders are weighting the high probability of continued moisture advection and limited insolation over the next 48 hours, while noting that any unexpected break in the monsoon or delayed convection could shift the distribution upward. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next model cycles will provide the next resolution-relevant data points.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$158Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA and regional model guidance for Manila points to persistent southwest monsoon flow and scattered afternoon showers through August 18, keeping daytime heating limited and positioning 28 °C as the market favorite. These conditions favor cloud cover and evaporative cooling that cap maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms of 30–31 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest, with only modest upside risk from brief clearing that could allow 29–30 °C readings. Traders are weighting the high probability of continued moisture advection and limited insolation over the next 48 hours, while noting that any unexpected break in the monsoon or delayed convection could shift the distribution upward. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next model cycles will provide the next resolution-relevant data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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