Forecast models from major centers point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw near 20–21°C on August 18, driven by a westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with historical August averages of 23–24°C providing context for why values above 22°C carry low implied probability. Key variables include exact timing of any precipitation and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress peaks by 1–2°C compared to clear-sky scenarios. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings.