Forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a warming trend into August 16 driven by high-pressure dominance, modest warm-air advection from the southeast, and increasing insolation, supporting market-implied odds centered on 28–30 °C. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and any late-day frontal passage that could cap maximum temperatures through reduced solar heating or trigger isolated thunderstorms, as hinted in recent guidance. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, with historical August maxima in Warsaw averaging near 23–25 °C but recent analogs favoring upper-20s under similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
31°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
22%
31°C
9%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 22%
31°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$5 KL.
<1%
24°C
$5 KL.
1%
25°C
$5 KL.
1%
26°C
$106 KL.
2%
27°C
$0 KL.
8%
28°C
$3 KL.
21%
29°C
$73 KL.
33%
30°C
$32 KL.
22%
31°C
$73 KL.
9%
32°C
$10 KL.
4%
33°C or higher
$10 KL.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a warming trend into August 16 driven by high-pressure dominance, modest warm-air advection from the southeast, and increasing insolation, supporting market-implied odds centered on 28–30 °C. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and any late-day frontal passage that could cap maximum temperatures through reduced solar heating or trigger isolated thunderstorms, as hinted in recent guidance. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, with historical August maxima in Warsaw averaging near 23–25 °C but recent analogs favoring upper-20s under similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$323Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a warming trend into August 16 driven by high-pressure dominance, modest warm-air advection from the southeast, and increasing insolation, supporting market-implied odds centered on 28–30 °C. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and any late-day frontal passage that could cap maximum temperatures through reduced solar heating or trigger isolated thunderstorms, as hinted in recent guidance. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, with historical August maxima in Warsaw averaging near 23–25 °C but recent analogs favoring upper-20s under similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$323Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a warming trend into August 16 driven by high-pressure dominance, modest warm-air advection from the southeast, and increasing insolation, supporting market-implied odds centered on 28–30 °C. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and any late-day frontal passage that could cap maximum temperatures through reduced solar heating or trigger isolated thunderstorms, as hinted in recent guidance. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, with historical August maxima in Warsaw averaging near 23–25 °C but recent analogs favoring upper-20s under similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp