Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 KL.
$71,534 KL.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 KL.
$71,534 KL.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
$8,525 KL.
No
13°C
$5,768 KL.
No
14°C
$10,201 KL.
Yes
15°C
$4,183 KL.
No
16°C
$5,882 KL.
No
17°C
$5,244 KL.
No
18°C
$3,746 KL.
No
19°C
$5,989 KL.
No
20°C
$7,158 KL.
No
21°C
$7,042 KL.
No
22°C or higher
$7,796 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$71,534Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$71,534Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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