Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington points to near-average winter conditions on August 15, with forecast highs centered on 14–15 °C under southerly flows and periods of low cloud or showers. These outcomes dominate market pricing because they align with both seasonal climatology (typical August maximum near 13–14 °C) and current model consensus on limited daytime warming. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and strength of any frontal passage, which can suppress or allow brief radiative heating, plus Wellington’s exposure to variable wind and marine influences that affect the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow spread between 14 °C and 15 °C highest while assigning lower probability to 16 °C or cooler outliers pending the next model runs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 15?
14°C 45%
15°C 36%
16°C 14%
13°C 5%
MỚI
$12,695 KL.
MỚI
$12,695 KL.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
45%
15°C
36%
16°C
14%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 45%
15°C 36%
16°C 14%
13°C 5%
MỚI
$12,695 KL.
MỚI
$12,695 KL.
Aug 15, 2026
9°C or below
$1,154 KL.
<1%
10°C
$285 KL.
<1%
11°C
$367 KL.
<1%
12°C
$1,255 KL.
2%
13°C
$2,408 KL.
5%
14°C
$2,161 KL.
45%
15°C
$2,062 KL.
36%
16°C
$1,178 KL.
14%
17°C
$1,162 KL.
2%
18°C
$245 KL.
<1%
19°C or higher
$417 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington points to near-average winter conditions on August 15, with forecast highs centered on 14–15 °C under southerly flows and periods of low cloud or showers. These outcomes dominate market pricing because they align with both seasonal climatology (typical August maximum near 13–14 °C) and current model consensus on limited daytime warming. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and strength of any frontal passage, which can suppress or allow brief radiative heating, plus Wellington’s exposure to variable wind and marine influences that affect the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow spread between 14 °C and 15 °C highest while assigning lower probability to 16 °C or cooler outliers pending the next model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$12,695Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington points to near-average winter conditions on August 15, with forecast highs centered on 14–15 °C under southerly flows and periods of low cloud or showers. These outcomes dominate market pricing because they align with both seasonal climatology (typical August maximum near 13–14 °C) and current model consensus on limited daytime warming. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and strength of any frontal passage, which can suppress or allow brief radiative heating, plus Wellington’s exposure to variable wind and marine influences that affect the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow spread between 14 °C and 15 °C highest while assigning lower probability to 16 °C or cooler outliers pending the next model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$12,695Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington points to near-average winter conditions on August 15, with forecast highs centered on 14–15 °C under southerly flows and periods of low cloud or showers. These outcomes dominate market pricing because they align with both seasonal climatology (typical August maximum near 13–14 °C) and current model consensus on limited daytime warming. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and strength of any frontal passage, which can suppress or allow brief radiative heating, plus Wellington’s exposure to variable wind and marine influences that affect the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow spread between 14 °C and 15 °C highest while assigning lower probability to 16 °C or cooler outliers pending the next model runs.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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