Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 100.0%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$10,246 KL.
$10,246 KL.
Jun 8, 2026
<200
Yes
200–229
No
230–259
No
260–289
No
290–319
No
320–349
No
350–379
No
380–410
No
410+
No
<200 100.0%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$10,246 KL.
$10,246 KL.
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$2,159 KL.
Yes
200–229
$1,003 KL.
No
230–259
$956 KL.
No
260–289
$772 KL.
No
290–319
$1,247 KL.
No
320–349
$1,169 KL.
No
350–379
$762 KL.
No
380–410
$853 KL.
No
410+
$1,324 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,246Ngày kết thúc
Jun 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$10,246Ngày kết thúc
Jun 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center indicate roughly 142–162 tornadoes across the United States in May 2026, well below the 1991–2020 average of approximately 265. This unusually quiet period featured limited severe weather outbreaks in traditional Tornado Alley regions, with weaker storm environments and fewer days meeting supercell-favorable conditions. National Weather Service surveys have since confirmed even lower final tallies near 119, locking in the sub-200 outcome. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven consensus, though minor upward revisions from late reports or reanalysis could theoretically occur before official closure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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