Recent official forecasts for Guangzhou indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 15, aligning with the market's leading 26°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability. Persistent high dew points near 24–25°C, widespread cloud cover, and light easterly winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid ongoing tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions match late-summer climatology, where historical September 15 minima average 24.2°C but rarely drop below 22°C without a stronger frontal passage. Model consensus shows limited spread, yet traders assign roughly 30% odds to both sub-20°C and 30°C+ scenarios, reflecting residual uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing that could alter the exact minimum before official observations resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
20°C or below 61%
30°C or higher 61%
26°C 42%
22°C 39%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
61%
21°C
13%
22°C
39%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
22%
26°C
36%
27°C
22%
28°C
21%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
61%
20°C or below 61%
30°C or higher 61%
26°C 42%
22°C 39%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
$10 KL.
61%
21°C
$10 KL.
13%
22°C
$10 KL.
39%
23°C
$0 KL.
22%
24°C
$0 KL.
22%
25°C
$0 KL.
22%
26°C
$12 KL.
36%
27°C
$0 KL.
22%
28°C
$8 KL.
21%
29°C
$10 KL.
17%
30°C or higher
$10 KL.
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Guangzhou indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 15, aligning with the market's leading 26°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability. Persistent high dew points near 24–25°C, widespread cloud cover, and light easterly winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid ongoing tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions match late-summer climatology, where historical September 15 minima average 24.2°C but rarely drop below 22°C without a stronger frontal passage. Model consensus shows limited spread, yet traders assign roughly 30% odds to both sub-20°C and 30°C+ scenarios, reflecting residual uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing that could alter the exact minimum before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70Ngày kết thúc
Sep 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Guangzhou indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 15, aligning with the market's leading 26°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability. Persistent high dew points near 24–25°C, widespread cloud cover, and light easterly winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid ongoing tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions match late-summer climatology, where historical September 15 minima average 24.2°C but rarely drop below 22°C without a stronger frontal passage. Model consensus shows limited spread, yet traders assign roughly 30% odds to both sub-20°C and 30°C+ scenarios, reflecting residual uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing that could alter the exact minimum before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$70Ngày kết thúc
Sep 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts for Guangzhou indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 15, aligning with the market's leading 26°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability. Persistent high dew points near 24–25°C, widespread cloud cover, and light easterly winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid ongoing tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions match late-summer climatology, where historical September 15 minima average 24.2°C but rarely drop below 22°C without a stronger frontal passage. Model consensus shows limited spread, yet traders assign roughly 30% odds to both sub-20°C and 30°C+ scenarios, reflecting residual uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing that could alter the exact minimum before official observations resolve the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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