Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies and global models indicate Jinan’s overnight low on September 24 will likely fall between 19–24 °C under a transition to overcast skies and light rain, with southerly flow limiting radiative cooling. This central tendency explains the near-even split between the 12 °C-or-below and 22 °C-or-higher outcomes at 48 % each, as traders weigh the potential for stronger cloud insulation versus any late clearing that could allow greater nighttime temperature drops. Key variables include the exact timing of precipitation onset, which suppresses diurnal range, and minor model disagreements on boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected later today will likely tighten the range around the observed consensus.