The strong market consensus favoring no megaquake (magnitude 8 or greater) by June 30 reflects the low global frequency of such events, with USGS long-term records indicating an average of roughly one per year worldwide. Recent seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows only moderate activity, including isolated magnitude 6 events such as the M6.2 offshore Italy, with no foreshock patterns or elevated strain signals suggesting rapid escalation. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes on major subduction zones further underscore that short windows of weeks carry limited odds absent unusual precursors. Continuous USGS data releases and model updates could shift views if new clusters emerge, though current observations align with baseline expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,565 KL.
$69,565 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,565 KL.
$69,565 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong market consensus favoring no megaquake (magnitude 8 or greater) by June 30 reflects the low global frequency of such events, with USGS long-term records indicating an average of roughly one per year worldwide. Recent seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows only moderate activity, including isolated magnitude 6 events such as the M6.2 offshore Italy, with no foreshock patterns or elevated strain signals suggesting rapid escalation. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes on major subduction zones further underscore that short windows of weeks carry limited odds absent unusual precursors. Continuous USGS data releases and model updates could shift views if new clusters emerge, though current observations align with baseline expectations.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$69,565Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong market consensus favoring no megaquake (magnitude 8 or greater) by June 30 reflects the low global frequency of such events, with USGS long-term records indicating an average of roughly one per year worldwide. Recent seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows only moderate activity, including isolated magnitude 6 events such as the M6.2 offshore Italy, with no foreshock patterns or elevated strain signals suggesting rapid escalation. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes on major subduction zones further underscore that short windows of weeks carry limited odds absent unusual precursors. Continuous USGS data releases and model updates could shift views if new clusters emerge, though current observations align with baseline expectations.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$69,565Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong market consensus favoring no megaquake (magnitude 8 or greater) by June 30 reflects the low global frequency of such events, with USGS long-term records indicating an average of roughly one per year worldwide. Recent seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows only moderate activity, including isolated magnitude 6 events such as the M6.2 offshore Italy, with no foreshock patterns or elevated strain signals suggesting rapid escalation. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes on major subduction zones further underscore that short windows of weeks carry limited odds absent unusual precursors. Continuous USGS data releases and model updates could shift views if new clusters emerge, though current observations align with baseline expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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