Global megaquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater occur roughly once per year on average, according to long-term USGS records, creating a low base rate that underpins the market's strong preference for no event by June 30. No active foreshock sequences, unusual seismic swarms, or elevated alerts from monitoring agencies currently signal heightened risk in the remaining window. Historical patterns show such large events cluster unpredictably rather than on short timelines, and the April 2026 Japan advisory temporarily raised near-term odds only to 1 percent before subsiding. New data releases from USGS or equivalent agencies could alter assessments if a significant precursor emerges, though model consensus and observational baselines continue to favor the current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,331 KL.
$69,331 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,331 KL.
$69,331 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global megaquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater occur roughly once per year on average, according to long-term USGS records, creating a low base rate that underpins the market's strong preference for no event by June 30. No active foreshock sequences, unusual seismic swarms, or elevated alerts from monitoring agencies currently signal heightened risk in the remaining window. Historical patterns show such large events cluster unpredictably rather than on short timelines, and the April 2026 Japan advisory temporarily raised near-term odds only to 1 percent before subsiding. New data releases from USGS or equivalent agencies could alter assessments if a significant precursor emerges, though model consensus and observational baselines continue to favor the current positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$69,331Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global megaquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater occur roughly once per year on average, according to long-term USGS records, creating a low base rate that underpins the market's strong preference for no event by June 30. No active foreshock sequences, unusual seismic swarms, or elevated alerts from monitoring agencies currently signal heightened risk in the remaining window. Historical patterns show such large events cluster unpredictably rather than on short timelines, and the April 2026 Japan advisory temporarily raised near-term odds only to 1 percent before subsiding. New data releases from USGS or equivalent agencies could alter assessments if a significant precursor emerges, though model consensus and observational baselines continue to favor the current positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$69,331Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global megaquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater occur roughly once per year on average, according to long-term USGS records, creating a low base rate that underpins the market's strong preference for no event by June 30. No active foreshock sequences, unusual seismic swarms, or elevated alerts from monitoring agencies currently signal heightened risk in the remaining window. Historical patterns show such large events cluster unpredictably rather than on short timelines, and the April 2026 Japan advisory temporarily raised near-term odds only to 1 percent before subsiding. New data releases from USGS or equivalent agencies could alter assessments if a significant precursor emerges, though model consensus and observational baselines continue to favor the current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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