Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% stems from the New Mexico Republican Party's failure to qualify any candidates for the June 2 primary ballot, as all filings were rejected in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures, leaving only a write-in effort led by Larry Marker with scant historical success. Luján faces a marginal Democratic primary challenge from Matt Dodson, recently arrested at a protest, in the reliably blue state where fellow Democrat Martin Heinrich secured re-election comfortably in 2024. This structural edge and lack of opposition reflect skin-in-the-game assessments, though late-breaking scandals, health issues for Luján, or an improbably strong write-in surge in November could theoretically shift dynamics before general election resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$13,421 KL.
$13,421 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
3%
$13,421 KL.
$13,421 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$7,856 KL.
95%
Republican
$5,565 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% stems from the New Mexico Republican Party's failure to qualify any candidates for the June 2 primary ballot, as all filings were rejected in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures, leaving only a write-in effort led by Larry Marker with scant historical success. Luján faces a marginal Democratic primary challenge from Matt Dodson, recently arrested at a protest, in the reliably blue state where fellow Democrat Martin Heinrich secured re-election comfortably in 2024. This structural edge and lack of opposition reflect skin-in-the-game assessments, though late-breaking scandals, health issues for Luján, or an improbably strong write-in surge in November could theoretically shift dynamics before general election resolution.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,421Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% stems from the New Mexico Republican Party's failure to qualify any candidates for the June 2 primary ballot, as all filings were rejected in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures, leaving only a write-in effort led by Larry Marker with scant historical success. Luján faces a marginal Democratic primary challenge from Matt Dodson, recently arrested at a protest, in the reliably blue state where fellow Democrat Martin Heinrich secured re-election comfortably in 2024. This structural edge and lack of opposition reflect skin-in-the-game assessments, though late-breaking scandals, health issues for Luján, or an improbably strong write-in surge in November could theoretically shift dynamics before general election resolution.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$13,421Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% stems from the New Mexico Republican Party's failure to qualify any candidates for the June 2 primary ballot, as all filings were rejected in February 2026 for insufficient voter signatures, leaving only a write-in effort led by Larry Marker with scant historical success. Luján faces a marginal Democratic primary challenge from Matt Dodson, recently arrested at a protest, in the reliably blue state where fellow Democrat Martin Heinrich secured re-election comfortably in 2024. This structural edge and lack of opposition reflect skin-in-the-game assessments, though late-breaking scandals, health issues for Luján, or an improbably strong write-in surge in November could theoretically shift dynamics before general election resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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