Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOctober 16 49%
October 19 49%
October 20 49%
October 24 49%
On or prior to October 1
12%
October 2
1%
October 3
5%
October 4
5%
October 5
1%
October 6
8%
October 7
14%
October 8
12%
October 9
1%
October 10
11%
October 11
5%
October 12
9%
October 13
14%
October 14
5%
October 15
7%
October 16
49%
October 17
7%
October 18
25%
October 19
49%
October 20
49%
October 21
38%
October 22
7%
October 23
10%
October 24
49%
October 25
12%
October 26
6%
October 27
44%
October 28
13%
October 29
13%
October 30
6%
October 31
6%
No release by October 31
9%
October 16 49%
October 19 49%
October 20 49%
October 24 49%
On or prior to October 1
12%
October 2
1%
October 3
5%
October 4
5%
October 5
1%
October 6
8%
October 7
14%
October 8
12%
October 9
1%
October 10
11%
October 11
5%
October 12
9%
October 13
14%
October 14
5%
October 15
7%
October 16
49%
October 17
7%
October 18
25%
October 19
49%
October 20
49%
October 21
38%
October 22
7%
October 23
10%
October 24
49%
October 25
12%
October 26
6%
October 27
44%
October 28
13%
October 29
13%
October 30
6%
October 31
6%
No release by October 31
9%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch, then slipped to July amid internal benchmarking shortfalls and extended partner testing—drive the market's concentration on late-October dates, with October 27 commanding 43% implied probability. Frequent Gemini 3.x Flash variants, including the September 2 release of 3.8 Flash and September 15 audio models, signal ongoing iteration on lighter models while the Pro tier remains in limited previews without a firm public rollout. Traders weigh Google's historical cadence for major Pro updates, ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, and absence of recent changelog or earnings signals as factors favoring a narrow October window over earlier or post-October 31 outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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