**The high 94.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act or SAVE America Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 reflects repeated Senate setbacks and structural barriers that have persisted through mid-September 2026.** The House passed versions of the bill requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID for voting, most recently 218–213 in February 2026. However, Senate efforts have stalled: an amendment failed 48–50 in June 2026, with four Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, and Tillis) joining Democrats to block it, and attempts to attach it to must-pass measures like the NDAA also failed. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no plan to advance the measure without the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. With the November 2026 midterms approaching and no new procedural breakthroughs or vote-count shifts reported, traders view enactment before year-end as highly unlikely. Any path would require either reconciliation compliance, filibuster reform, or sufficient bipartisan support that current Senate dynamics have not produced.