Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 because recent developments have centered on limited airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval brinkmanship rather than ground operations or regime-change occupation. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that began Operation Epic Fury and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict shifted to periodic retaliatory actions focused on infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz. By early August 2026, talks mediated through Oman advanced toward reopening commercial shipping lanes, with President Trump publicly describing negotiations as ongoing and Iran’s last opportunity for a deal. Iranian demands for sanctions relief, asset releases, and U.S. force withdrawals remain points of contention, but no verified preparations for large-scale troop deployment into Iranian territory have emerged. Diplomatic momentum and munitions constraints have kept escalation below the threshold for invasion in the remaining months of 2026.