Republican Nick Begich III, the incumbent, advanced from the August 2026 top-four primary as the clear frontrunner and now faces independent Bill Hill in the November general election. Alaska’s consistent Republican presidential lean, combined with Begich’s name recognition and consolidated party support after prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability. Recent polling from multiple firms shows Begich ahead by double digits in both first-round and final-round ranked-choice scenarios. Democratic candidates received limited primary support and the leading contender withdrew, leaving no viable path for that party. The race remains subject to standard uncertainties around turnout, ranked-choice vote flows, and any late developments before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$39,857 交易量
$39,857 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
84%
民主黨
8%
$39,857 交易量
$39,857 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$10,113 交易量
84%
民主黨
$29,744 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Nick Begich III, the incumbent, advanced from the August 2026 top-four primary as the clear frontrunner and now faces independent Bill Hill in the November general election. Alaska’s consistent Republican presidential lean, combined with Begich’s name recognition and consolidated party support after prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability. Recent polling from multiple firms shows Begich ahead by double digits in both first-round and final-round ranked-choice scenarios. Democratic candidates received limited primary support and the leading contender withdrew, leaving no viable path for that party. The race remains subject to standard uncertainties around turnout, ranked-choice vote flows, and any late developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$39,857結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Nick Begich III, the incumbent, advanced from the August 2026 top-four primary as the clear frontrunner and now faces independent Bill Hill in the November general election. Alaska’s consistent Republican presidential lean, combined with Begich’s name recognition and consolidated party support after prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability. Recent polling from multiple firms shows Begich ahead by double digits in both first-round and final-round ranked-choice scenarios. Democratic candidates received limited primary support and the leading contender withdrew, leaving no viable path for that party. The race remains subject to standard uncertainties around turnout, ranked-choice vote flows, and any late developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,857結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETRepublican Nick Begich III, the incumbent, advanced from the August 2026 top-four primary as the clear frontrunner and now faces independent Bill Hill in the November general election. Alaska’s consistent Republican presidential lean, combined with Begich’s name recognition and consolidated party support after prior cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability. Recent polling from multiple firms shows Begich ahead by double digits in both first-round and final-round ranked-choice scenarios. Democratic candidates received limited primary support and the leading contender withdrew, leaving no viable path for that party. The race remains subject to standard uncertainties around turnout, ranked-choice vote flows, and any late developments before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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