Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions after a spate of high-profile moves in late March. Saudi Arabia expelled Iran's military attaché on March 22, followed by Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata amid regional tensions from Iranian missile attacks on Israel and proxy escalations. A U.S. State Department disclosure on April 3 revealed the quiet December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani over national security concerns, but no fresh incidents or intelligence leaks have prompted additional Western or allied responses in the past week. With three weeks left, absent new plots, airstrikes, or official condemnations, traders see low risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-04-30
是
最新
最新
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions after a spate of high-profile moves in late March. Saudi Arabia expelled Iran's military attaché on March 22, followed by Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata amid regional tensions from Iranian missile attacks on Israel and proxy escalations. A U.S. State Department disclosure on April 3 revealed the quiet December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani over national security concerns, but no fresh incidents or intelligence leaks have prompted additional Western or allied responses in the past week. With three weeks left, absent new plots, airstrikes, or official condemnations, traders see low risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$2,465結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions after a spate of high-profile moves in late March. Saudi Arabia expelled Iran's military attaché on March 22, followed by Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata amid regional tensions from Iranian missile attacks on Israel and proxy escalations. A U.S. State Department disclosure on April 3 revealed the quiet December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani over national security concerns, but no fresh incidents or intelligence leaks have prompted additional Western or allied responses in the past week. With three weeks left, absent new plots, airstrikes, or official condemnations, traders see low risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,465結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions after a spate of high-profile moves in late March. Saudi Arabia expelled Iran's military attaché on March 22, followed by Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon declaring Iranian envoys persona non grata amid regional tensions from Iranian missile attacks on Israel and proxy escalations. A U.S. State Department disclosure on April 3 revealed the quiet December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani over national security concerns, but no fresh incidents or intelligence leaks have prompted additional Western or allied responses in the past week. With three weeks left, absent new plots, airstrikes, or official condemnations, traders see low risk of further expulsions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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