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選舉·主要

CA-04主要優勝者

icon for CA-04主要優勝者
選舉·主要

CA-04主要優勝者

$43,731 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$43,731 交易量

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$7,711 交易量

100%

Eric Jones

$12,904 交易量

73%

Sharon Brown

$4,452 交易量

2%

約翰·衛斯理·泰勒

$1,903 交易量

1%

Laurie MacKenzie

$868 交易量

1%

Mandy Ghusar

$3,238 交易量

1%

特雷弗·梅雷爾

$10,866 交易量

<1%

希斯·富克森

$1,790 交易量

<1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 4th Congressional District held its top-two primary on June 2, 2026, following redistricting under Proposition 50 that incorporated nearly 50% new territory, including more rural and conservative counties such as Colusa, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, and Yuba. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson, a moderate Democrat seeking his 15th term and serving on the House Ways and Means Committee, faced Democratic challenger Eric Jones, a venture capitalist, along with multiple Republican candidates including Ray Riehle, Sharon Brown, and Mandy Ghusar. Early certified results showed Thompson advancing comfortably while Jones trailed, positioning the race for a November general election between the top two vote-getters regardless of party. The district's changed composition and Thompson's established incumbency and party endorsement shaped candidate positioning and voter dynamics in the primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$43,731
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 4th Congressional District held its top-two primary on June 2, 2026, following redistricting under Proposition 50 that incorporated nearly 50% new territory, including more rural and conservative counties such as Colusa, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, and Yuba. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson, a moderate Democrat seeking his 15th term and serving on the House Ways and Means Committee, faced Democratic challenger Eric Jones, a venture capitalist, along with multiple Republican candidates including Ray Riehle, Sharon Brown, and Mandy Ghusar. Early certified results showed Thompson advancing comfortably while Jones trailed, positioning the race for a November general election between the top two vote-getters regardless of party. The district's changed composition and Thompson's established incumbency and party endorsement shaped candidate positioning and voter dynamics in the primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$43,731
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04主要優勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 100%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 73%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04主要優勝者" has generated $43.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04主要優勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04主要優勝者" is "Mike Thompson" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 73%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04主要優勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.