Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index, its 10-point Harris margin in 2024, and Min's primary performance of roughly 45% against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux's 25%. Min benefits from first-term incumbency in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Tustin, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage and consensus ratings of solid or safe Democratic from major forecasters. The top-two primary system has already locked in the matchup, limiting volatility. A Republican victory would require a sustained national wave, significant local shifts in turnout among key demographics, or late developments capable of overcoming the structural lean.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$12,737 交易量
$12,737 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$12,737 交易量
$12,737 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$1,861 交易量
94%
共和黨
$10,876 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index, its 10-point Harris margin in 2024, and Min's primary performance of roughly 45% against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux's 25%. Min benefits from first-term incumbency in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Tustin, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage and consensus ratings of solid or safe Democratic from major forecasters. The top-two primary system has already locked in the matchup, limiting volatility. A Republican victory would require a sustained national wave, significant local shifts in turnout among key demographics, or late developments capable of overcoming the structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,737結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index, its 10-point Harris margin in 2024, and Min's primary performance of roughly 45% against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux's 25%. Min benefits from first-term incumbency in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Tustin, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage and consensus ratings of solid or safe Democratic from major forecasters. The top-two primary system has already locked in the matchup, limiting volatility. A Republican victory would require a sustained national wave, significant local shifts in turnout among key demographics, or late developments capable of overcoming the structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,737結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the district's D+6 partisan voter index, its 10-point Harris margin in 2024, and Min's primary performance of roughly 45% against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux's 25%. Min benefits from first-term incumbency in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Tustin, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage and consensus ratings of solid or safe Democratic from major forecasters. The top-two primary system has already locked in the matchup, limiting volatility. A Republican victory would require a sustained national wave, significant local shifts in turnout among key demographics, or late developments capable of overcoming the structural lean.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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