Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote against Republican David Pan and a secondary Democratic challenger. The seat carries a D+10 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, reflecting established voter registration patterns and past general election margins that favor Democratic candidates. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable path for Republicans. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's baseline composition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$24,141 交易量
$24,141 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$24,141 交易量
$24,141 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$4,638 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$19,503 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote against Republican David Pan and a secondary Democratic challenger. The seat carries a D+10 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, reflecting established voter registration patterns and past general election margins that favor Democratic candidates. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable path for Republicans. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's baseline composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$24,141結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote against Republican David Pan and a secondary Democratic challenger. The seat carries a D+10 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, reflecting established voter registration patterns and past general election margins that favor Democratic candidates. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable path for Republicans. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's baseline composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,141結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 46th congressional district with roughly 52 percent of the vote against Republican David Pan and a secondary Democratic challenger. The seat carries a D+10 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, reflecting established voter registration patterns and past general election margins that favor Democratic candidates. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 95 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable path for Republicans. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's baseline composition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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