Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. The district's modest Democratic partisan voting index and Ryan's double-digit reelection margin in the prior cycle have deterred robust Republican recruitment, with nominee Jackie Auringer facing limited resources and visibility. Forecasters rate the seat likely or solid Democratic, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically benefits from national conditions. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpectedly strong Republican national environment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late primary surprises on June 23 that alter candidate dynamics before the general election campaign intensifies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$34,579 交易量
$34,579 交易量
2026-11-04
民主黨
90%
共和黨
10%
$34,579 交易量
$34,579 交易量
2026-11-04
民主黨
$32,557 交易量
90%
共和黨
$2,023 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. The district's modest Democratic partisan voting index and Ryan's double-digit reelection margin in the prior cycle have deterred robust Republican recruitment, with nominee Jackie Auringer facing limited resources and visibility. Forecasters rate the seat likely or solid Democratic, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically benefits from national conditions. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpectedly strong Republican national environment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late primary surprises on June 23 that alter candidate dynamics before the general election campaign intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$34,579結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. The district's modest Democratic partisan voting index and Ryan's double-digit reelection margin in the prior cycle have deterred robust Republican recruitment, with nominee Jackie Auringer facing limited resources and visibility. Forecasters rate the seat likely or solid Democratic, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically benefits from national conditions. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpectedly strong Republican national environment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late primary surprises on June 23 that alter candidate dynamics before the general election campaign intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,579結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. The district's modest Democratic partisan voting index and Ryan's double-digit reelection margin in the prior cycle have deterred robust Republican recruitment, with nominee Jackie Auringer facing limited resources and visibility. Forecasters rate the seat likely or solid Democratic, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party typically benefits from national conditions. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpectedly strong Republican national environment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late primary surprises on June 23 that alter candidate dynamics before the general election campaign intensifies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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