Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$15,348 交易量
$15,348 交易量
2026-11-03
Cait Conley（民主黨）
56%
邁克·勞勒（共和黨）
41%
$15,348 交易量
$15,348 交易量
2026-11-03
Cait Conley（民主黨）
$6,426 交易量
56%
邁克·勞勒（共和黨）
$8,922 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$15,348結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,348結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETCait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions