Eugene Vindman’s incumbency in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, combined with a D+2 to D+3 partisan lean and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million, underpins the Democratic Party’s 91% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 rejection of the Democratic-backed redistricting amendment preserved the existing map, limiting Republican gains and contributing to the collapse in GOP odds from earlier peaks near 35%. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus prices in limited realistic paths for an upset, primarily a sustained national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout, or late developments that erode Vindman’s position ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$3,106 交易量
91%
Republican Party
$6,416 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Eugene Vindman’s incumbency in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, combined with a D+2 to D+3 partisan lean and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million, underpins the Democratic Party’s 91% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 rejection of the Democratic-backed redistricting amendment preserved the existing map, limiting Republican gains and contributing to the collapse in GOP odds from earlier peaks near 35%. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus prices in limited realistic paths for an upset, primarily a sustained national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout, or late developments that erode Vindman’s position ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$9,522結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Eugene Vindman’s incumbency in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, combined with a D+2 to D+3 partisan lean and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million, underpins the Democratic Party’s 91% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 rejection of the Democratic-backed redistricting amendment preserved the existing map, limiting Republican gains and contributing to the collapse in GOP odds from earlier peaks near 35%. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus prices in limited realistic paths for an upset, primarily a sustained national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout, or late developments that erode Vindman’s position ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,522結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eugene Vindman’s incumbency in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, combined with a D+2 to D+3 partisan lean and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $12 million, underpins the Democratic Party’s 91% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 2026 rejection of the Democratic-backed redistricting amendment preserved the existing map, limiting Republican gains and contributing to the collapse in GOP odds from earlier peaks near 35%. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus prices in limited realistic paths for an upset, primarily a sustained national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout, or late developments that erode Vindman’s position ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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