Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026 (46.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 280-299 (22.8%) and 320-339 (20.4%), driven by verified tracker data showing 267 countable posts (originals, quotes, reposts; excluding replies) after six days elapsed as of April 16 morning, projecting a 45-post daily average toward ~315 total. Early momentum surged with 172 posts in the first three days (~57/day) amid Musk's viral commentary on politics and violence, but cooled to 65-89 posts April 13-15 (~28/day) as focus shifted to Tesla updates and xAI developments. With 14% of the period remaining through April 17 noon ET, steady pace supports the frontrunner, though breaking news could accelerate activity into higher bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於300-319 47%
280-299 22.1%
320-339 20.4%
340-359 6.3%
$10,029,081 交易量
$10,029,081 交易量
260-279
1%
280-299
22%
300-319
47%
320-339
20%
340-359
6%
360-379
2%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 47%
280-299 22.1%
320-339 20.4%
340-359 6.3%
$10,029,081 交易量
$10,029,081 交易量
260-279
1%
280-299
22%
300-319
47%
320-339
20%
340-359
6%
360-379
2%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026 (46.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 280-299 (22.8%) and 320-339 (20.4%), driven by verified tracker data showing 267 countable posts (originals, quotes, reposts; excluding replies) after six days elapsed as of April 16 morning, projecting a 45-post daily average toward ~315 total. Early momentum surged with 172 posts in the first three days (~57/day) amid Musk's viral commentary on politics and violence, but cooled to 65-89 posts April 13-15 (~28/day) as focus shifted to Tesla updates and xAI developments. With 14% of the period remaining through April 17 noon ET, steady pace supports the frontrunner, though breaking news could accelerate activity into higher bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions