Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for the cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population by week 12 of 2026 (late March), with market-implied odds clustered around 75–90 as frontrunners at 34–43%, signaling expectations of a typical-to-moderate severity season akin to 2023–24's 77.9 per 100k. This positioning draws from CDC historical baselines, where rates vary widely (e.g., 106+ in severe 2022–23 vs. milder recent years), influenced by dominant strains—H3N2 often drives higher hospitalizations due to poorer vaccine match and elderly vulnerability. Differentiating factors include forthcoming 2025–26 vaccine efficacy against circulating variants, early-season ILI surveillance trends, and vaccination uptake rates above 50% in priority groups. CDC weekly FluView updates through winter will refine model consensus on transmission dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
90–95 46%
85–90 41%
80–85 39%
95以上 36%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
35%
75–80
-
80–85
39%
85–90
41%
90–95
33%
95以上
36%
90–95 46%
85–90 41%
80–85 39%
95以上 36%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$126 交易量
35%
75–80
$70 交易量
-
80–85
$99 交易量
39%
85–90
$121 交易量
41%
90–95
$122 交易量
33%
95以上
$99 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for the cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population by week 12 of 2026 (late March), with market-implied odds clustered around 75–90 as frontrunners at 34–43%, signaling expectations of a typical-to-moderate severity season akin to 2023–24's 77.9 per 100k. This positioning draws from CDC historical baselines, where rates vary widely (e.g., 106+ in severe 2022–23 vs. milder recent years), influenced by dominant strains—H3N2 often drives higher hospitalizations due to poorer vaccine match and elderly vulnerability. Differentiating factors include forthcoming 2025–26 vaccine efficacy against circulating variants, early-season ILI surveillance trends, and vaccination uptake rates above 50% in priority groups. CDC weekly FluView updates through winter will refine model consensus on transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
交易量
$637結束日期
Apr 3, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for the cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population by week 12 of 2026 (late March), with market-implied odds clustered around 75–90 as frontrunners at 34–43%, signaling expectations of a typical-to-moderate severity season akin to 2023–24's 77.9 per 100k. This positioning draws from CDC historical baselines, where rates vary widely (e.g., 106+ in severe 2022–23 vs. milder recent years), influenced by dominant strains—H3N2 often drives higher hospitalizations due to poorer vaccine match and elderly vulnerability. Differentiating factors include forthcoming 2025–26 vaccine efficacy against circulating variants, early-season ILI surveillance trends, and vaccination uptake rates above 50% in priority groups. CDC weekly FluView updates through winter will refine model consensus on transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
交易量
$637結束日期
Apr 3, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for the cumulative U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population by week 12 of 2026 (late March), with market-implied odds clustered around 75–90 as frontrunners at 34–43%, signaling expectations of a typical-to-moderate severity season akin to 2023–24's 77.9 per 100k. This positioning draws from CDC historical baselines, where rates vary widely (e.g., 106+ in severe 2022–23 vs. milder recent years), influenced by dominant strains—H3N2 often drives higher hospitalizations due to poorer vaccine match and elderly vulnerability. Differentiating factors include forthcoming 2025–26 vaccine efficacy against circulating variants, early-season ILI surveillance trends, and vaccination uptake rates above 50% in priority groups. CDC weekly FluView updates through winter will refine model consensus on transmission dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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