**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C high in Wellington on September 5, 2026, rests on consistent short-range forecast guidance from regional models and official observations.** Multiple sources, including Met Office and local monitoring, project a daytime maximum near 14–15°C under prevailing cooler northwesterly to southerly flows, with no warm advection or clear-sky heating expected to push readings higher. This aligns closely with climatological norms for early September, when mean daily maxima typically range 13–15°C. The near-zero odds for 19°C reflect the absence of any model support for significant positive temperature anomalies or atypical synoptic setups. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm front or localized measurement variance at the official station, though current data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
9月5日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
15°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$56,288 交易量
$56,288 交易量
2026-09-05
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
15°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$56,288 交易量
$56,288 交易量
2026-09-05
10°C或以下
$250 交易量
否
11°C
$403 交易量
否
12°C
$324 交易量
否
13°C
$1,458 交易量
否
14°C
$11,622 交易量
否
15°C
$13,685 交易量
是
16°C
$18,018 交易量
否
17°C
$5,762 交易量
否
18°C
$4,358 交易量
否
19°C
$177 交易量
否
20°C或以上
$231 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C high in Wellington on September 5, 2026, rests on consistent short-range forecast guidance from regional models and official observations.** Multiple sources, including Met Office and local monitoring, project a daytime maximum near 14–15°C under prevailing cooler northwesterly to southerly flows, with no warm advection or clear-sky heating expected to push readings higher. This aligns closely with climatological norms for early September, when mean daily maxima typically range 13–15°C. The near-zero odds for 19°C reflect the absence of any model support for significant positive temperature anomalies or atypical synoptic setups. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm front or localized measurement variance at the official station, though current data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$56,288結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C high in Wellington on September 5, 2026, rests on consistent short-range forecast guidance from regional models and official observations.** Multiple sources, including Met Office and local monitoring, project a daytime maximum near 14–15°C under prevailing cooler northwesterly to southerly flows, with no warm advection or clear-sky heating expected to push readings higher. This aligns closely with climatological norms for early September, when mean daily maxima typically range 13–15°C. The near-zero odds for 19°C reflect the absence of any model support for significant positive temperature anomalies or atypical synoptic setups. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm front or localized measurement variance at the official station, though current data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$56,288結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 15°C high in Wellington on September 5, 2026, rests on consistent short-range forecast guidance from regional models and official observations.** Multiple sources, including Met Office and local monitoring, project a daytime maximum near 14–15°C under prevailing cooler northwesterly to southerly flows, with no warm advection or clear-sky heating expected to push readings higher. This aligns closely with climatological norms for early September, when mean daily maxima typically range 13–15°C. The near-zero odds for 19°C reflect the absence of any model support for significant positive temperature anomalies or atypical synoptic setups. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted warm front or localized measurement variance at the official station, though current data and model agreement make such shifts improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions