Forecasts for Chengdu on September 24 point to persistent cloud cover and light rain or showers, which limit solar heating and favor maximum temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and local meteorological agencies highlights reduced insolation combined with evaporative cooling from precipitation, typical of late-September patterns in the Sichuan basin where monsoon remnants and terrain effects often cap daytime peaks. Historical averages near 24–25 °C provide context, while slight model differences in timing of heaviest rain or afternoon clearing create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–28 °C. Updated official guidance from Chinese meteorological services and any late adjustments to moisture or wind fields represent the next key data points likely to influence trader positions.