Recent forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24 under a strong subtropical ridge, with clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover enabling efficient daytime heating. Madrid’s elevated plateau location amplifies radiative warming, while September climatology already favors warmth before the typical autumn transition. Stable high pressure has suppressed frontal systems and precipitation across central Spain in recent days, sustaining above-normal readings. Numerical guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs shows little spread for the 24th, supporting trader emphasis on the 34°C and 35°C outcomes while assigning low probability to cooler or extreme-heat scenarios. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月24日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月24日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 63%
35°C 21%
33°C 19%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-24
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
19%
34°C
63%
35°C
21%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C或以上
<1%
34°C 63%
35°C 21%
33°C 19%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-24
29°C或以下
$273 交易量
<1%
30°C
$189 交易量
<1%
31°C
$17 交易量
2%
32°C
$35 交易量
3%
33°C
$748 交易量
19%
34°C
$997 交易量
63%
35°C
$514 交易量
21%
36°C
$18 交易量
2%
37°C
$20 交易量
2%
38°C
$80 交易量
<1%
39°C或以上
$213 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24 under a strong subtropical ridge, with clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover enabling efficient daytime heating. Madrid’s elevated plateau location amplifies radiative warming, while September climatology already favors warmth before the typical autumn transition. Stable high pressure has suppressed frontal systems and precipitation across central Spain in recent days, sustaining above-normal readings. Numerical guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs shows little spread for the 24th, supporting trader emphasis on the 34°C and 35°C outcomes while assigning low probability to cooler or extreme-heat scenarios. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$3,104結束日期
2026-09-24市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24 under a strong subtropical ridge, with clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover enabling efficient daytime heating. Madrid’s elevated plateau location amplifies radiative warming, while September climatology already favors warmth before the typical autumn transition. Stable high pressure has suppressed frontal systems and precipitation across central Spain in recent days, sustaining above-normal readings. Numerical guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs shows little spread for the 24th, supporting trader emphasis on the 34°C and 35°C outcomes while assigning low probability to cooler or extreme-heat scenarios. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,104結束日期
2026-09-24市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24 under a strong subtropical ridge, with clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover enabling efficient daytime heating. Madrid’s elevated plateau location amplifies radiative warming, while September climatology already favors warmth before the typical autumn transition. Stable high pressure has suppressed frontal systems and precipitation across central Spain in recent days, sustaining above-normal readings. Numerical guidance from GFS and ECMWF runs shows little spread for the 24th, supporting trader emphasis on the 34°C and 35°C outcomes while assigning low probability to cooler or extreme-heat scenarios. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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