Trader consensus favoring a 34°C high for Madrid on September 22 reflects the latest GFS and regional model consensus projecting afternoon peaks of 32–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds. Diurnal heating in the elevated Madrid basin, combined with dry subsidence and minimal cloud cover, supports these values, which align with AEMET guidance showing maxima near 32–33°C. Recent model runs have shown little deviation, keeping the 33–34°C cluster dominant while limiting upside risk for 35°C or higher. Official observations and ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty for exceeding 34°C given current steering patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月22日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月22日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 63%
33°C 26%
35°C 9%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
4%
32°C
5%
33°C
26%
34°C
63%
35°C
9%
36°C
4%
37°C
4%
38°C或以上
1%
34°C 63%
33°C 26%
35°C 9%
32°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
28°C或以下
$15 交易量
<1%
29°C
$90 交易量
1%
30°C
$0 交易量
3%
31°C
$5 交易量
4%
32°C
$32 交易量
5%
33°C
$283 交易量
26%
34°C
$153 交易量
63%
35°C
$5 交易量
9%
36°C
$36 交易量
4%
37°C
$62 交易量
4%
38°C或以上
$10 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring a 34°C high for Madrid on September 22 reflects the latest GFS and regional model consensus projecting afternoon peaks of 32–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds. Diurnal heating in the elevated Madrid basin, combined with dry subsidence and minimal cloud cover, supports these values, which align with AEMET guidance showing maxima near 32–33°C. Recent model runs have shown little deviation, keeping the 33–34°C cluster dominant while limiting upside risk for 35°C or higher. Official observations and ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty for exceeding 34°C given current steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$692結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring a 34°C high for Madrid on September 22 reflects the latest GFS and regional model consensus projecting afternoon peaks of 32–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds. Diurnal heating in the elevated Madrid basin, combined with dry subsidence and minimal cloud cover, supports these values, which align with AEMET guidance showing maxima near 32–33°C. Recent model runs have shown little deviation, keeping the 33–34°C cluster dominant while limiting upside risk for 35°C or higher. Official observations and ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty for exceeding 34°C given current steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$692結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETTrader consensus favoring a 34°C high for Madrid on September 22 reflects the latest GFS and regional model consensus projecting afternoon peaks of 32–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds. Diurnal heating in the elevated Madrid basin, combined with dry subsidence and minimal cloud cover, supports these values, which align with AEMET guidance showing maxima near 32–33°C. Recent model runs have shown little deviation, keeping the 33–34°C cluster dominant while limiting upside risk for 35°C or higher. Official observations and ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty for exceeding 34°C given current steering patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions