Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and halting active production. IAEA reports confirm suspended enrichment, limited access to affected sites, and no verified weaponization steps, while interim U.S.-Iran understandings emphasize inspections and dilution under international oversight. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view breakout timelines—estimated at nine to twelve months by U.S. assessments—as incompatible with current constraints. Diplomatic negotiations and risks of further action reinforce this positioning. Conceivable shifts could arise from rapid recovery of stockpiles, a sudden policy reversal in Tehran, or verification breakdowns that allow covert progress.