Incumbent Ron Estes secured the Republican nomination with an 81% primary victory in August, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell, who won her party's primary with 66%. The Kansas 4th District's R+12 partisan voting index and history of double-digit Republican margins underpin trader consensus at 92.5% for Estes. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit such shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$71,912 交易量
$71,912 交易量
2026-11-02
羅恩·埃斯特斯（共和黨）
93%
Katy Tyndell（民主黨）
7%
$71,912 交易量
$71,912 交易量
2026-11-02
羅恩·埃斯特斯（共和黨）
$42,075 交易量
93%
Katy Tyndell（民主黨）
$29,837 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ron Estes secured the Republican nomination with an 81% primary victory in August, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell, who won her party's primary with 66%. The Kansas 4th District's R+12 partisan voting index and history of double-digit Republican margins underpin trader consensus at 92.5% for Estes. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$71,912結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ron Estes secured the Republican nomination with an 81% primary victory in August, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell, who won her party's primary with 66%. The Kansas 4th District's R+12 partisan voting index and history of double-digit Republican margins underpin trader consensus at 92.5% for Estes. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$71,912結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Ron Estes secured the Republican nomination with an 81% primary victory in August, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell, who won her party's primary with 66%. The Kansas 4th District's R+12 partisan voting index and history of double-digit Republican margins underpin trader consensus at 92.5% for Estes. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit such shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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