**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日勒克瑙的最低溫度？
9月15日勒克瑙的最低溫度？
26°C 100%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$1,111 交易量
$1,111 交易量
2026-09-15
21°C或以下
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C或以上
否
26°C 100%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$1,111 交易量
$1,111 交易量
2026-09-15
21°C或以下
$10 交易量
否
22°C
$10 交易量
否
23°C
$156 交易量
否
24°C
$105 交易量
否
25°C
$80 交易量
否
26°C
$69 交易量
是
27°C
$422 交易量
否
28°C
$200 交易量
否
29°C
$16 交易量
否
30°C
$16 交易量
否
31°C或以上
$26 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.**
High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$1,111結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.**
High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,111結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models converge on a minimum temperature of 26°C for Lucknow on September 15, 2026, supporting the 90% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** High humidity near 80–90% combined with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover from lingering monsoon moisture is limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from dropping further. This aligns with typical mid-September climatology in the region, where post-monsoon nights usually bottom out in the mid-20s°C before the southwest monsoon fully withdraws around September 19. Recent observations show overnight lows of 25–26°C across nearby Uttar Pradesh stations, with no significant cool-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions expected to push temperatures lower. The modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or below (9.5%) reflect the low likelihood of atypical cooling, while higher values like 27°C or above carry negligible odds given the persistent moisture and stable steering patterns. Traders are weighting the consensus forecast and historical analogs heavily as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions