Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日東京的最低溫度？
8月26日東京的最低溫度？
28°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,806 交易量
$12,806 交易量
2026-08-26
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,806 交易量
$12,806 交易量
2026-08-26
22°C or below
$1,056 交易量
No
23°C
$591 交易量
No
24°C
$841 交易量
No
25°C
$1,015 交易量
No
26°C
$775 交易量
No
27°C
$1,849 交易量
No
28°C
$3,705 交易量
Yes
29°C
$864 交易量
No
30°C
$139 交易量
No
31°C
$647 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$1,322 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,806結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,806結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions