Trader consensus on an 82% probability for "Yes" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of major escalations in ongoing conflicts, such as the Iran situation, alongside routine institutional processes like scheduled elections in Zambia and special U.S. congressional contests. Recent actions, including the August signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and limited domestic deployments like National Guard activations, have not triggered broader disruptions or shifts in alliances. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary votes in Sweden and Brazil's general election, appear on track without indications of sudden crises or realignments that would alter the current equilibrium. This positioning aligns with patterns where prediction markets price continuity over volatility in the absence of acute catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
82% 機率
$728,756 交易量
$728,756 交易量
2026-12-31
是
82% 機率
$728,756 交易量
$728,756 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on an 82% probability for "Yes" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of major escalations in ongoing conflicts, such as the Iran situation, alongside routine institutional processes like scheduled elections in Zambia and special U.S. congressional contests. Recent actions, including the August signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and limited domestic deployments like National Guard activations, have not triggered broader disruptions or shifts in alliances. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary votes in Sweden and Brazil's general election, appear on track without indications of sudden crises or realignments that would alter the current equilibrium. This positioning aligns with patterns where prediction markets price continuity over volatility in the absence of acute catalysts.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$728,756結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on an 82% probability for "Yes" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of major escalations in ongoing conflicts, such as the Iran situation, alongside routine institutional processes like scheduled elections in Zambia and special U.S. congressional contests. Recent actions, including the August signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and limited domestic deployments like National Guard activations, have not triggered broader disruptions or shifts in alliances. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary votes in Sweden and Brazil's general election, appear on track without indications of sudden crises or realignments that would alter the current equilibrium. This positioning aligns with patterns where prediction markets price continuity over volatility in the absence of acute catalysts.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$728,756結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 82% probability for "Yes" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of major escalations in ongoing conflicts, such as the Iran situation, alongside routine institutional processes like scheduled elections in Zambia and special U.S. congressional contests. Recent actions, including the August signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and limited domestic deployments like National Guard activations, have not triggered broader disruptions or shifts in alliances. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary votes in Sweden and Brazil's general election, appear on track without indications of sudden crises or realignments that would alter the current equilibrium. This positioning aligns with patterns where prediction markets price continuity over volatility in the absence of acute catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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