Incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Kelly, serving since 2011 and chair of the Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary while maintaining over $1.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-2026. Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks polling evidence of a competitive race ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91 percent for Kelly aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and limited campaign activity. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in northwestern Pennsylvania counties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$40,188 交易量
$40,188 交易量
2026-11-02
麥克·凱利（共和黨）
91%
賈斯汀·瓦格納（民主黨）
7%
$40,188 交易量
$40,188 交易量
2026-11-02
麥克·凱利（共和黨）
$23,876 交易量
91%
賈斯汀·瓦格納（民主黨）
$16,312 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Kelly, serving since 2011 and chair of the Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary while maintaining over $1.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-2026. Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks polling evidence of a competitive race ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91 percent for Kelly aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and limited campaign activity. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in northwestern Pennsylvania counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$40,188結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Kelly, serving since 2011 and chair of the Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary while maintaining over $1.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-2026. Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks polling evidence of a competitive race ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91 percent for Kelly aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and limited campaign activity. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in northwestern Pennsylvania counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,188結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETIncumbent Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in an R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and repeated Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasting outlets. Kelly, serving since 2011 and chair of the Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary while maintaining over $1.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-2026. Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, an Iraq War veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks polling evidence of a competitive race ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91 percent for Kelly aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and limited campaign activity. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in northwestern Pennsylvania counties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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