Trader consensus favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her commanding a double-digit lead amid a Liberal resurgence in the province. Conservative Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 37.5%, bolstered by national party momentum and local voter shifts from the Bloc Québécois, whose Maxime Beaudoin sits at 0.3% alongside negligible chances for NDP's Maria Cantore, independent Benjamin Rankin, and Green Adrienne Charles. Key factors include Auguste’s strong fundraising and volunteer turnout, contrasted with Bloc weaknesses post-incumbent resignation; a Nanos poll last week widened her edge to 52% from 45%. The November 25 vote looms, with low by-election turnout adding uncertainty to these Quebec riding dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 38%
Maria Cantore <1%
Benjamin Rankin <1%

塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
38%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 38%
Maria Cantore <1%
Benjamin Rankin <1%

塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
38%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her commanding a double-digit lead amid a Liberal resurgence in the province. Conservative Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 37.5%, bolstered by national party momentum and local voter shifts from the Bloc Québécois, whose Maxime Beaudoin sits at 0.3% alongside negligible chances for NDP's Maria Cantore, independent Benjamin Rankin, and Green Adrienne Charles. Key factors include Auguste’s strong fundraising and volunteer turnout, contrasted with Bloc weaknesses post-incumbent resignation; a Nanos poll last week widened her edge to 52% from 45%. The November 25 vote looms, with low by-election turnout adding uncertainty to these Quebec riding dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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