Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 non-binding referendum shows 64–74% support for remaining a Canadian province versus 22–27% for commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith added the question after a citizen petition for direct separation language faced court challenges over First Nations consultation and treaty rights. Surveys indicate most Albertans view separation as carrying excessive economic, pension, and service risks, with limited shifts in sentiment over recent months. These consistent results align with traders assigning a high implied probability against an independence vote occurring in 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
8% 機率
$296,509 交易量
$296,509 交易量
2026-12-30
是
8% 機率
$296,509 交易量
$296,509 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 non-binding referendum shows 64–74% support for remaining a Canadian province versus 22–27% for commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith added the question after a citizen petition for direct separation language faced court challenges over First Nations consultation and treaty rights. Surveys indicate most Albertans view separation as carrying excessive economic, pension, and service risks, with limited shifts in sentiment over recent months. These consistent results align with traders assigning a high implied probability against an independence vote occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
交易量
$296,509結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 non-binding referendum shows 64–74% support for remaining a Canadian province versus 22–27% for commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith added the question after a citizen petition for direct separation language faced court challenges over First Nations consultation and treaty rights. Surveys indicate most Albertans view separation as carrying excessive economic, pension, and service risks, with limited shifts in sentiment over recent months. These consistent results align with traders assigning a high implied probability against an independence vote occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$296,509結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETRecent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 non-binding referendum shows 64–74% support for remaining a Canadian province versus 22–27% for commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith added the question after a citizen petition for direct separation language faced court challenges over First Nations consultation and treaty rights. Surveys indicate most Albertans view separation as carrying excessive economic, pension, and service risks, with limited shifts in sentiment over recent months. These consistent results align with traders assigning a high implied probability against an independence vote occurring in 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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