USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11-12日 100.0%
8月8日或更早 <1%
8月9日至10日 <1%
8月13日或之後 <1%
$9,296 交易量
$9,296 交易量
2026-09-01
8月8日或更早
否
8月9日至10日
否
8月11-12日
是
8月13日或之後
否
8月11-12日 100.0%
8月8日或更早 <1%
8月9日至10日 <1%
8月13日或之後 <1%
$9,296 交易量
$9,296 交易量
2026-09-01
8月8日或更早
$1,341 交易量
否
8月9日至10日
$2,167 交易量
否
8月11-12日
$3,471 交易量
是
8月13日或之後
$2,317 交易量
否
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
交易量
$9,296結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
交易量
$9,296結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory data showed Episode 53 of the Halemaʻumaʻu summit eruption at Kīlauea beginning at 3:45 p.m. HST on August 12 after sustained precursory overflows and spatter from the north vent transitioned to high fountaining, coinciding with a clear switch to deflationary tilt. This matched the typical inflation-deflation cycle and historical timing patterns of the ongoing episodic activity, where steady summit reinflation reliably precedes new episodes. Trader consensus at near-certain probability for the August 11-12 window reflected confidence in these real-time geophysical indicators and model consensus. A realistic challenge would require an atypical pause or renewed inflation that delayed the onset beyond the observed vent behavior and tilt signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions