The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed unified support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while pledging to strengthen sanctions on Russia’s war economy and energy sectors. With no ceasefire or negotiated settlement in place that addresses core territorial and security issues, G7 members continue to condition any normalization—including potential readmission—on verifiable Russian concessions and a durable peace. Recent battlefield dynamics, including incremental Russian advances at high cost and Ukraine’s resilience, have sustained Western alignment against premature diplomatic rehabilitation. Trader consensus at 98.2% against rejoining before 2027 reflects this entrenched isolation, though a rapid breakthrough via direct U.S.-Russia talks or a surprise multilateral agreement could theoretically alter the timeline within the narrow remaining window.