Strong public backing for EU membership across member states, reinforced by the economic and political disruptions observed after the UK's 2020 departure, underpins trader expectations that no country will invoke Article 50 before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in nations such as Poland and Hungary have voiced frustration with specific policies on migration, regulation, and fiscal rules, yet they increasingly favor internal reform or alternative arrangements like EEA-style ties over full exit. No active referendums, formal withdrawal notifications, or majority parliamentary support for departure exist in the current window. High implied probability for no withdrawal captures these structural and procedural hurdles, including treaty requirements and ratification timelines. Late shifts could still arise from unexpected election outcomes in 2027 or a sudden bloc-wide crisis altering national incentives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？
有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？
是
2% 機率
$166,936 交易量
$166,936 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 機率
$166,936 交易量
$166,936 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong public backing for EU membership across member states, reinforced by the economic and political disruptions observed after the UK's 2020 departure, underpins trader expectations that no country will invoke Article 50 before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in nations such as Poland and Hungary have voiced frustration with specific policies on migration, regulation, and fiscal rules, yet they increasingly favor internal reform or alternative arrangements like EEA-style ties over full exit. No active referendums, formal withdrawal notifications, or majority parliamentary support for departure exist in the current window. High implied probability for no withdrawal captures these structural and procedural hurdles, including treaty requirements and ratification timelines. Late shifts could still arise from unexpected election outcomes in 2027 or a sudden bloc-wide crisis altering national incentives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$166,936結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong public backing for EU membership across member states, reinforced by the economic and political disruptions observed after the UK's 2020 departure, underpins trader expectations that no country will invoke Article 50 before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in nations such as Poland and Hungary have voiced frustration with specific policies on migration, regulation, and fiscal rules, yet they increasingly favor internal reform or alternative arrangements like EEA-style ties over full exit. No active referendums, formal withdrawal notifications, or majority parliamentary support for departure exist in the current window. High implied probability for no withdrawal captures these structural and procedural hurdles, including treaty requirements and ratification timelines. Late shifts could still arise from unexpected election outcomes in 2027 or a sudden bloc-wide crisis altering national incentives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$166,936結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETStrong public backing for EU membership across member states, reinforced by the economic and political disruptions observed after the UK's 2020 departure, underpins trader expectations that no country will invoke Article 50 before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in nations such as Poland and Hungary have voiced frustration with specific policies on migration, regulation, and fiscal rules, yet they increasingly favor internal reform or alternative arrangements like EEA-style ties over full exit. No active referendums, formal withdrawal notifications, or majority parliamentary support for departure exist in the current window. High implied probability for no withdrawal captures these structural and procedural hurdles, including treaty requirements and ratification timelines. Late shifts could still arise from unexpected election outcomes in 2027 or a sudden bloc-wide crisis altering national incentives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions